Jalisco – Texas, from silicon to agave. The axis that could safeguard nearshoring in 2025

In 2024, Mexico–United States trade reached $839.6 billion in goods; U.S. exports to Mexico grew by 3.2% and imports from Mexico by 6.9%. Within this framework, Texas is the hinge: it processed about 66% of all bilateral trade across the border and remained the country’s top exporting state, with $455 billion in shipments worldwide. Laredo ended the year as the number one port in the U.S. by trade value, at around $339 billion. These three figures explain why a Jalisco–Texas binational agreement is not secondary but strategic for the nearshoring momentum.

Jalisco closed 2024 with $30.4 billion in exports (+11.9% year-on-year), equivalent to 5.5% of Mexico’s total. Its export basket combines advanced manufacturing and agrifood: in Q4 2024, 57.6% came from electronics, 13% from transportation equipment, and 8.7% from beverages and tobacco; agriculture contributed 4.4%. This profile aligns with Texas’s demand for electronics, auto parts, and processed foods, and with existing routes crossing through Laredo and other Texan ports of entry.

Agriculture adds both symbolic and market value: tequila —anchored in Jalisco— produced 495.8 million liters in 2024 and exported 400.3 million, with the U.S. as its primary destination. Export value surpassed $4.28 billion, confirming it as one of Mexico’s star agrifood products. If an agricultural chapter is formalized in a Jalisco–Texas Agreement, it could prioritize harmonized phytosanitary protocols, traceability, and dedicated cold-chain logistics for berries and spirits, reducing delays and spoilage during peak seasons.

The 2025 outlook raises both opportunities and risks. On the positive side, logistics infrastructure is expanding: in addition to the planned expansion of the World Trade Bridge in Laredo, Puerto del Norte in Matamoros was reactivated, opening an additional maritime valve for the northeast and reinforcing corridors into Texas. On the risk side, tariff discussions in the U.S. have resurfaced, with warnings about impacts on Texan supply chains if duties are extended. A subnational agreement can mitigate that volatility with regulatory certainty and single-window mechanisms to accelerate cross-border clearance.

What should a Jalisco–Texas Agreement for agricultural, manufactured, and technological products include? First, a framework for customs facilitation with pilot pre-clearance programs and dedicated lanes for perishables and high-value goods, supported by non-intrusive inspection and interoperable risk management; Texas processes most of the flow and every minute saved in Laredo pays binational dividends. Second, a digital chapter that recognizes electronic signatures, invoicing, and documentation, while enabling data interoperability for SME exporters, aligned with USMCA digital trade provisions. Third, a rules-of-origin and compliance agenda for automotive and electronics to reduce disputes and rejections at the border. Fourth, a talent agenda to standardize technical certifications and ease temporary mobility of specialized personnel between Guadalajara and Texan hubs (Austin, San Antonio, Dallas), where tech demand is surging.

Data confirms there is real demand. Nearshoring-driven industrial absorption in Mexico reached 1.7 million m² by Q3 2024, up 14% year-on-year, led by automotive. That pressure is already reflected in orders to Jalisco suppliers and higher cross-border flows through Texas. Formalizing cross-border public procurement, regulatory sandboxes for medical devices and hardware, and green purchasing by Texan cities and counties could transform those flows into long-term contracts.

Compliance safeguards must also be considered. The USMCA Rapid Response Labor Mechanism has been triggered multiple times; a labor annex in the Jalisco–Texas Agreement offering training and preventive audits to SMEs would reduce sanction risks in sensitive sectors. Collaboration with universities —University of Guadalajara, Tec de Monterrey, and Texan research centers— can provide technical assistance, ESG traceability, and testing labs for first-time exporters.

Looking ahead to 2025, mayors and state governments face three critical challenges. The first is trade uncertainty: tariff noise could cool investment unless a local route of certainty and efficiency is offered; here, a Jalisco–Texas agreement works as an institutional “insurance.” The second is infrastructure and logistics security: speeding up access, expanding inspection yards, and coordinating intelligence against cargo theft is as important as inaugurating new routes; Laredo’s leadership and ongoing projects prove this point. The third is energy, water, and compliance: without reliable electricity, resilient water sources, and verifiable labor standards, nearshoring could falter. The task is not just to move more cargo, but to move it better, with clear rules and supply chains resilient to political cycles. If Jalisco and Texas sign an agreement on these pillars, the axis of silicon and agave will not only grow —it will secure the future of North American manufacturing and high-value agriculture.

Written by: Editorial

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