Welfare or borderline? The new invisible wall between Mexico and the United States

For decades, analyses of the Mexico–U.S. border have focused on trade, migration, and infrastructure. However, since 2023—and even more clearly in 2024—a silent yet decisive force has begun reshaping the region: welfare policies. In binational cities like Tijuana–San Diego, Ciudad Juárez–El Paso, and Nogales–Nogales, access to social services, healthcare, education, and direct income transfers is increasingly influencing not only quality of life but also migration patterns, informal employment, and transborder community relations.

In 2024, both Mexico and the United States implemented key welfare reforms. In Mexico, the consolidation of the Bienestar para Todos program increased direct transfers to seniors by 15%, while the Jóvenes Construyendo el Futuroprogram grew by 12%, particularly in northern states. The IMSS-Bienestar health system also expanded its coverage in Baja California and Sonora, benefiting over 380,000 people in urban peripheral areas. Meanwhile, in the U.S., a federal agenda acknowledging structural inequalities along the border led to Medicaid expansions in Arizona, New Mexico, and California, extending coverage to more migrants with mixed status and benefiting 1.2 million people. Additionally, funding for Community Health Centers in border counties grew by 9%, now supporting 287 operational units.

These measures have had contrasting yet complementary effects. On the Mexican side, conditional transfers and expanded healthcare services have reduced dependence on U.S. services among migrant and repatriated communities. According to CONEVAL and El Colegio de la Frontera Norte, labor poverty in border municipalities dropped from 32.8% in 2023 to 28.9% in 2024. Moreover, subjective well-being perception—measured by the ENVIPE survey—rose by 11% in Baja California and 9% in Chihuahua.

In the U.S., improved access to healthcare for Latino and migrant communities has reduced the burden on emergency hospitals, where previously up to 22% of patients were uninsured. In 2024, that figure dropped to 17.3%, according to the U.S. Border Health Commission. School retention rates among children of migrants also improved in border districts, rising by 3.5% thanks to bilingual and emotional support programs funded with federal grants.

Despite these advances, the binational welfare model faces deep structural challenges. First, the fiscal disparity between the two countries remains an invisible wall. While the U.S. spends an average of $16,000 per person annually on social programs, Mexico allocates just $2,500. This gap creates imbalances that push many Mexicans to seek services across the border, placing pressure on U.S. local systems and fueling anti-immigrant narratives.

Additionally, the digitalization of social services—a growing trend in both countries—is creating new forms of exclusion. In 2024, 31% of households in rural areas of the Mexican border lacked reliable internet access, hindering enrollment in social programs. Meanwhile, in southern Texas and Arizona, Hispanic communities with limited English proficiency faced barriers to accessing digital welfare platforms, even though 87% of federal procedures moved online in 2024.

Finally, there is still a lack of institutional coordination between both governments to address transborder challenges with a regional approach. Despite multiple working groups and forums in 2024, such as the U.S.-Mexico Border Mayors Association and the Binational Forum on Social Development promoted by Mexico’s SEDESOL, a joint protocol for addressing the needs of mobile or mixed-status populations has not been established. This absence leads to duplicated efforts, underutilized funds, and fragmented responses to shared problems.

Looking toward 2025, the major challenge will be to move toward a regional welfare strategy that breaks from a unilateral border mindset. A binational approach must recognize the social interdependence of border communities and leverage the strengths of both protection models. This could involve, for example, harmonizing data systems to track poverty and health trends, establishing service portability mechanisms for legal migrants, and creating fiscal incentives to support cross-border civil society organizations.

The border is no longer just a line on a map; it is a shared living space. Ignoring the social dimension of welfare in this region means overlooking one of the most profound transformations of the current binational landscape. Public policy decisions in this area must not be shaped by walls or checkpoints, but by bridges that ensure dignity, equity, and shared human development.

Written by: Editorial

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