Sun and wind without borders. The MX–U.S. alliance that can electrify the border in 2025
- Editorial
- Aug 26
- 3 min read
Energy cooperation between Mexico and the United States is no longer a slogan—it is measured in megawatts crossing the line. A pioneering example is Energía Sierra Juárez (ESJ), the first cross-border wind farm delivering electricity from Baja California to California’s market through a binational transmission line. Its second phase boosted the total “zero-carbon” supply northward, setting a regulatory precedent by being eligible under California’s RPS program. In 2025, Sempra is also advancing the Cimarrón wind project (≈320 MW) in Baja California to deliver energy to Silicon Valley Power, again using a cross-border interconnection. These projects demonstrate that it is possible to coordinate permits, standards, and market rules on both sides of the border.
The 2024 data confirms the shift: in Mexico, renewables contributed about 22% of total electricity generation, with wind and solar combined accounting for 13% (solar alone 8%), still below the global average but growing strongly in the northwestern border states. In the United States, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported last year that solar generation increased 25% and wind 8% compared to 2023. Combined, renewables (mainly solar, wind, and hydro) represented around 22% of electricity and are expected to keep expanding in 2025. Analysts project that solar alone could account for about half of new installed capacity this year, with Texas and the Southwest leading.
On the Mexican side, the Sonora Plan has become the flagship of a solar-powered border. The Puerto Peñasco mega photovoltaic project—planned to surpass 1 GW—launched new bidding processes for its next stage in June 2025 and maintains its expansion roadmap through 2028. This will be crucial to supplying growing demand from tourism, logistics, and manufacturing across the Sonora–Arizona–Baja corridor. Public inventories also document the project’s phased progress and precise location, critical for planning transmission lines and storage facilities.
On the Pacific side, the transborder architecture is already in place and being reinforced. ESJ operates under a long-term contract and a dedicated transmission line crossing into California’s East County substation. Cimarrón will use the same “electric highway” and is expected to start generating by late 2025 and begin commercial operations in early 2026. Financing and support from binational banks such as the North American Development Bank (NADB)—which backed ESJ’s first phase including the cross-border line—illustrates how to structure projects that reduce regulatory and market risk.
The political economy of 2025, however, is not trivial. While Mexico has announced more ambitious renewable targets toward 2030—with signals since October 2024 of raising its renewable share—the U.S. federal environment is less certain regarding incentives for new projects, although solar and battery deployment continue strong due to market demand and competitive costs. Academic analyses converge: the energy-trade relationship needs updated rules in the face of industrial policy shocks, tariffs, and supply security concerns, with 85% of Mexican exports depending on the U.S. market. For border municipalities, this means planning with redundancy in interconnections, storage, and contracts.
What lessons from 2024 matter for 2025? First, the bottleneck is not technology but the grid. Mexico’s CFE is already programming solar-plus-storage expansions in several plants—including Puerto Peñasco—and on the U.S. side, the storage boom is complementing the solar peak. Second, bankability improves when rules are compatible: RPS certifications, renewable attribute traceability, and bankable PPAs that recognize the “nationality” of megawatts. Third, logistics corridors—maquiladoras, data centers, agro-export hubs—are the demand anchors that make binational projects profitable.
My forecast for 2025: the potential will unlock if three coordinated moves happen. One, moving from isolated projects to cross-border transmission “programs” with single windows involving CRE–CFE–FERC/CAISO/ERCOT, prioritizing Baja California–California and Sonora–Arizona, and standardizing certificates so municipalities can buy clean energy without accounting disputes. Two, accelerating grid-scale storage as an interconnection requirement for new plants and launching local auctions for ancillary services; the 2024 data shows that where batteries are deployed, solar/wind utilization improves, and congestion falls. Three, protecting supply chains against tariffs and regulatory volatility while maintaining the economic signal: today, even with federal uncertainty, the market keeps installing more solar and storage driven by cost and demand. If municipalities, states, and anchor companies commit to long-term regional contracts of 10–20 years, the border could become North America’s largest clean electrification laboratory.
Written by: Editorial
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