From T-MEC workshop to manufacturing superpower. Nearshoring that redraws North America’s map

Mexico is living a pivotal industrial moment. The reshaping of global supply chains and integration with the United States and Canada are turning the country into the great production hub of the hemisphere. In 2024, Mexico consolidated its position as the U.S.’s top trade partner in goods, with total trade of $839.9 billion — $505.9 billion in U.S. imports from Mexico and $334 billion in U.S. exports to Mexico — surpassing both Canada and China. It is the clearest proof that the “T-MEC factory” is already running at full speed.

Domestic evidence is equally compelling. Mexican exports reached a historic high of $617.1 billion in 2024, an annual growth of 4.1%. Nearly 90% of exported value was manufactured goods (89.8%), confirming the country’s industrial specialization and alignment with the North American market.

Foreign direct investment also accompanied the cycle: Mexico posted a record $36.8 billion in 2024. Yet the detail matters: most of the FDI came from profit reinvestment — $28.7 billion — while “new FDI” fell 39% compared to 2023. Over half of the total (54%) went to manufacturing, especially transport equipment, reflecting industrial depth but also the need to broaden the sectoral base to capture more value.

The geography of nearshoring can already be seen on the ground. Industrial parks affiliated with AMPIP reported 98% occupancy levels in 2024 and welcomed 196 new tenants in 2023 (46% above the 2018–2022 average); they expect similar growth in 2024–2025. Yet developers identify electricity as the number-one bottleneck: 55% cite power supply as the main limitation to attracting companies, followed by security and the availability of gas and water.

The binational component of this phenomenon is technological. In 2024, Washington and Mexico City agreed on a joint roadmap for semiconductors — assessing capabilities, talent, and regulation — linking the U.S. CHIPS Act with North American human capital training programs (for example, university alliances such as Arizona State University with Mexican institutions). If Mexico accelerates technical talent and intermediate inputs, it can climb into the higher-value layers of the supply chain.

Cross-border logistics are also being reconfigured. The new international rail connection in Laredo, completed in December 2024, doubled cargo-crossing capacity by train and reinforced the backbone of trade along the Texas–Northeast Mexico corridor. It is a silent yet strategic milestone to decongest the border and cut costs and delays.

Still, 2024 left important lessons. Heat waves triggered operational alerts and blackouts in May, exposing the fact that electricity infrastructure — transmission, distribution, and clean generation — is a sine qua non condition for nearshoring. Without it, country risk rises and investment announcements stall. Energy policy must prioritize permits, grid expansion, and regulatory certainty so that both CFE and private investment can mobilize capital at scale.

In 2025, political timing will shape the pace. Mexico and the U.S. will open the prelude to the T-MEC review scheduled for 2026: talks begin this year, with a menu of topics ranging from auto rules of origin to labor and environmental mechanisms. The risk of unilateral tariffs or regulatory tightening is real; but so is the opportunity: using the review to fine-tune standards, digitize customs, certify regional inputs, and shield critical supply chains. The key will be to negotiate while keeping investment certainty intact.

What comes next to scale up from “T-MEC workshop” to global manufacturing power? First, an explicit and binational industrial strategy that aligns incentives for innovation, decarbonization, and regional content, with measurable goals per cluster (automotive-electric, aerospace, medical devices, smart agribusiness, and microelectronics). Second, critical infrastructure: affordable, clean energy, secure industrial water, and ports/border crossings with 24/7 single windows. Third, talent: bilingual technical certifications, cross-border labor mobility, and training in AI, robotics, and cybersecurity for SME suppliers. Fourth, rule of law: security in logistics corridors and contract enforcement. Fifth, financing: supply chain funds for Tier-2 and Tier-3 suppliers to increase local content and productivity.

My outlook for 2025 is optimistic yet cautious. U.S. demand and geographical advantages will continue driving relocations, and border infrastructure shows progress. But the window will not stay open forever: if power supply lags, if the T-MEC review generates uncertainty, or if semiconductor chains cannot find skilled talent, part of the prize will move to other pro-industry geographies. Mexico and the U.S. can turn nearshoring into a historic lever if they do three things with realism and speed: consolidate regulatory certainty, invest massively in clean power grids, and professionalize their supplier ecosystem. On that tripod depends whether North America turns a short-term boom into structural competitiveness.

Written by: Editorial

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