The border reinvented. From dividing line to binational factory
- Editorial
- Aug 26
- 3 min read
The nearshoring conversation has matured: 2025 is the year to move from discourse to institutional architecture. The most powerful tool—if designed correctly—are binational Special Economic Zones (SEZs): mirror polygons on both sides of the border coordinating tax incentives, smart customs, clean energy, and workforce training. This is not theory. In 2024, Mexico closed with $36.9 billion in FDI—77% via reinvestment—with a clear bias toward export manufacturing, the natural fuel of any SEZ.
The United States already operates a mature network of Foreign-Trade Zones (FTZ). The FTZ Board’s latest report shows the scale: $949 billion in goods received and $149 billion in exports, with more than 550,000 jobs across 374 active manufacturing operations. This framework is perfectly positioned to be “paired” with industrial parks and special regimes on the Mexican side. At the state level, interdependence is tangible: in 2024, Mexico was the top source of 27.5% of Arizona’s imports ($11.6 billion); and in September 2024, Arizona’s exports to Mexico grew by 28.3% year-on-year—evidence of value chains already integrated that a binational SEZ can accelerate.
Mexico, despite canceling its original SEZs, deployed equivalent instruments. The October 2023 decree granted accelerated depreciation and incentives to 10 export sectors until the end of 2024, plus additional deductions for training through 2025. In parallel, the Northern Border Free Zone regime maintained preferential ISR/IVA rates (20% and 8%) throughout 2024 for eligible firms, lowering cross-border costs. In 2025, the government issued a new stimulus package (“Plan México”) to attract investment and upgrade supply chains. These pieces, if coordinated with FTZs and state-level regimes in the U.S., can act as a de facto SEZ.
Additionally, the Interoceanic Corridor of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec—with 10 Development Poles and specific tax incentives—acts as a “hinge” linking the southeast, Gulf, and Pacific, complementing the border strip. In 2024, Oaxaca already showed industrial traction, with annual production up 17.7% in May, tied to logistics upgrades and park investment.
If designed binationally, federal infrastructure matters. The U.S. program to modernize 26 border ports under the IIJA is replacing bottlenecks with high-capacity lanes and next-generation inspection systems; without agile customs, no SEZ prospers. Politically, the 2026 USMCA review requires clear rules to reduce regulatory uncertainty—the first condition for fixed-asset investment within special zones.
Did 2024 work? Yes, but with nuance. Studies from Tec de Monterrey estimate nearshoring could boost Mexico’s labor productivity by 15–30% by 2030—an immense window of opportunity—while research from the Dallas Fed reminds us that much of the export boom stemmed from trade diversion from China rather than massive new capex. A well-calibrated binational SEZ is precisely the instrument to move from “opportunistic trade” to “anchored investment.”
My thesis for 2025 is clear: we must connect “dots” into a mesh of mirror SEZs. On the Mexican side: Isthmus parks and northern-Bajío clusters under targeted stimuli; on the U.S. side: FTZs and, where relevant, overlay with Opportunity Zones to leverage private capital with tax advantages. All welded by three technological layers: pre-clearance customs with shared data, digital traceability of USMCA rules of origin, and energy certification ensuring eligible manufacturing is also low-carbon. With IIJA modernizing crossings and a new 2025 stimulus decree, the window is open.
The challenges are also binational. In Mexico: electricity capacity, water, and legal certainty for industrial land; in the U.S.: tariff volatility and the temptation of selective “re-shoring” that could raise regional content thresholds. Both must standardize licensing and municipal one-stop shops, synchronize environmental permits, and set “green SEZ” criteria for incentive access. If local governments lead—with metrics such as formal employment, SME linkages, and crossing times as quarterly KPIs—SEZs will cease being pretty maps and become the engine that keeps North American manufacturing competitive against Asia.
The border is no longer a line: it is a shared production system. Turning it into a network of special zones, with simple rules and interoperable technology, is the difference between “just another wave” and the redesign of North America’s industrial map.
Written by: Editorial
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