The Battle for the Ballot in Mexico City: Who Will Win the Capital's Vote in 2025?
- Editorial
- Jul 9
- 3 min read
Updated: Jul 10
At a decisive moment for the political course of Mexico’s capital, Mexico City is immersed in an electoral reconfiguration that could redefine not only its local political map but also federal projections heading toward 2030. The latest poll by Massive Caller, conducted on July 8, 2025, offers a clear snapshot of voting intentions in the city’s 16 boroughs. This citizen pulse check not only measures preferences—it also reveals trends in continuity, rejection, and political volatility that deserve close scrutiny from campaign strategists, economic stakeholders, and binational observers.
MORENA remains the dominant force in the capital, leading voting intentions in 13 of the 16 boroughs, with percentages ranging from 34.6% in Magdalena Contreras to a robust 50.6% in Milpa Alta. Key strongholds like Iztapalapa (49.7%), Tláhuac (41.9%), and Gustavo A. Madero (41.8%) highlight solid support for the ruling party, although not always overwhelming. Meanwhile, the PAN retains control in Benito Juárez (45.7%) and Miguel Hidalgo (39.3%), districts historically associated with conservative, middle to upper-middle-class voters.
One of the most revealing findings is the rejection rate for current mayors seeking re-election. In Xochimilco, for example, 74.2% of respondents said they would not vote again for Circe Camacho Bastida. In Cuauhtémoc, only 29.8% would support a second term for Alessandra Rojo de la Vega. In contrast, Luis Mendoza Acevedo (PAN, Benito Juárez) enjoys a 52.7% approval rating for re-election, as does Gabriela Osorio Hernández (MORENA, Tlalpan) with 52.4%, showing that political loyalty is not always tied to party color but rather to perceived performance.
This political landscape must also be analyzed through economic and technological lenses. Mexico City accounts for 17% of the national GDP and is a hub for strategic industries like digital innovation, advanced logistics, and cultural tourism. In this context, boroughs such as Coyoacán, Azcapotzalco, and Cuauhtémoc are positioning themselves as technological investment zones. Voter decisions, therefore, are not just ideological—they’re economic bets on models of local development. Will citizens choose to continue digital government initiatives and public-private partnerships, or opt for political platforms that emphasize social control and fiscal restraint?
From a binational perspective, what happens in Mexico City will resonate in U.S. cities connected through programs like Sister Cities International and cross-border cooperation initiatives in areas such as public safety, culture, and climate change. The political orientation of each borough directly impacts its ability to attract foreign direct investment, sign innovation agreements, and participate in global forums on urban governance, where local leadership increasingly drives international agendas.
Looking ahead to 2025, the biggest challenge will be winning over the 10% to 20% of undecided voters. This segment will be decisive in tightly contested boroughs like Coyoacán (MORENA 39.7%, PAN 33.1%) and Cuajimalpa (MORENA 35.5%, PAN 33.2%). Campaigns must move beyond ideological clashes and offer credible proposals on key issues such as mobility, security, sustainable urban development, and digital governance.
Technology will also play a central role. The use of big data, electoral geointelligence, and micro-targeting will be essential in identifying undecided voters—especially in densely populated areas like Iztapalapa or Gustavo A. Madero. This professionalization of political marketing, already widespread in U.S. campaigns, is taking root in Mexican politics, particularly in digitally connected boroughs.
Ultimately, Mexico City is not a monolith. It is a mosaic of interests, aspirations, and challenges. It houses marginalized communities alongside global financial districts, indigenous populations alongside tech entrepreneurs. Whoever understands this diversity and translates it into inclusive, participatory, and sustainable public policies will have an advantage not only at the 2025 polls but in shaping the city’s governance for years to come.
Written by: Editorial
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